RESUMO
BACKGROUND: Osteoporosis and attributable fractures are disruptive health events that can cause short and long-term cost consequences for families, health service and government. In this fracture-based scenario analysis we evaluate the broader public economic consequences for the Korean government based on fractures that can occur at 3 different ages.METHODS: We developed a public economic modelling framework based on population averages in Korea for earnings, direct taxes, indirect taxes, disability payments, retirement, pension payments, and osteoporosis health costs. Applying a scenario analysis, we estimated the cumulative average per person fiscal consequences of osteoporotic fractures occurring at different ages 55, 65, and 75 compared to average non-fracture individuals of comparable ages to estimate resulting costs for government in relation to lost tax revenue, disability payments, pension costs, and healthcare costs. All costs are calculated between the ages of 50 to 80 in Korean Won (KRW) and discounted at 0.5%.RESULTS: From the scenarios explored, fractures occurring at age 55 are most costly for government with increased disability and pension payments of KRW 26,048,400 and KRW 41,094,206 per person, respectively, compared to the non-fracture population. A fracture can result in reduction in lifetime direct and indirect taxes resulting in KRW 53,648,886 lost tax revenue per person for government compared to general population.CONCLUSIONS: The fiscal consequences of osteoporotic fractures for government vary depending on the age at which they occur. Fiscal benefits for government are greater when fractures are prevented early due to the potential to prevent early retirement and keeping people in the labor force to the degree that is observed in non-fracture population.